Díaz-Canel's new visit to Moscow: Will more fuel arrive in Cuba?

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel began an official visit to Russia on May 5, amid a new era of energy scarcity on the island.

The trip has raised hopes within Cuba for the possible resumption of concrete aid to address the prolonged blackouts and fuel shortages.

The president paid tribute in St. Petersburg to the defenders of the siege of Leningrad, in the first act of a official agenda which could include meetings with Vladimir Putin and senior Kremlin officials.

According to state media, this is a "high-level visit" that seeks to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

A trip to get oil?

This is not the first time that Díaz-Canel's trip to Russia coincides with a critical situation in Cuba. In May 2024, following his participation in the Victory Day parade in Moscow, more than 90.000 tons of Russian crude oil began arriving in Cuba. According to official reports. This shipment was publicly announced the same weekend the Cuban president was in the Russian capital.

At the time, the island was suffering one of its worst energy crises in months. Gasoline and diesel were in short supply, and power outages of up to eight hours a day were reported. The arrival of Russian crude oil partially stabilized the electricity system in May and June.

A similar pattern was repeated in 2022, when Díaz-Canel embarked on an extensive international tour of Algeria, Russia, Turkey, and China after weeks of massive blackouts. Shortly after, Cuba received donations and agreements that temporarily mitigated the energy crisis: Algerian oil, Russian wheat, and Chinese financial relief.

An increasingly evident correlation

Over the past four years, the Cuban president's trips to allied countries have coincided with particularly difficult times on the island. In 2021, just weeks after the July 11 protests, Díaz-Canel traveled to Venezuela and Mexico. The visit to Mexico was preceded by a direct request for humanitarian aid, and resulted in the Shipping of ships with food, oxygen and fuel by the López Obrador government.

In January 2023, a meeting in Caracas with Nicolás Maduro preceded a notable increase in shipments of Venezuelan oil, crucial to keeping Cuban thermoelectric plants running.

The same pattern has been repeated with Iran, a country with which Cuba has strengthened a joint "resistance strategy" that has included fuel donations and technological support in key sectors such as biotechnology.

The data show a striking synchronicity between the president's trips abroad and the peaks of domestic crises. Although the solutions achieved have been partial, they have helped avoid a total collapse at times of maximum tension. However, they also highlight Cuba's deep dependence on its geopolitical allies.

What is expected from this new visit?

In recent weeks, Cuba has once again experienced serious supply problems. Several airports in the country warned of jet fuel shortages in April, and lines to refuel at service stations have reappeared in numerous cities.

Cuban state media has not yet confirmed whether this visit will include new energy agreements, but recent history suggests the government could be quietly negotiating new shipments of Russian crude oil or even investments in energy infrastructure.

There is also speculation about the possible expansion of technological cooperation agreements, medium-term financing, and support in international forums.

For now, the Cuban population is hoping that, once again, diplomacy will bring some relief to the daily crisis.

Amid a paralyzed economy, persistent blackouts, and mass emigration, any improvement in energy supply could make a difference in the coming months.