New news on Musk and Trump's proposed $5000 stimulus check

A potential tax refund inspired by the so-called "DOGE dividend" has generated excitement among some taxpayers in the United States. However, not everyone would qualify for this financial benefit if it is ultimately approved.

The idea was floated by investment manager James Fishback, who briefly worked at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) created under the Donald Trump administration. According to him, Americans should receive 20% of the money the agency manages to save, in the form of a direct refund.

Both Elon Musk and Trump himself have publicly endorsed this possibility. But unlike the stimulus checks sent during the pandemic, this one wouldn't reach everyone's pockets.

Only for those who pay net taxes

The potential "DOGE check" would only benefit those who have paid positive net taxes. That is, taxpayers who did not receive more in tax credits than they contributed in taxes.

According to analysis by the Pew Research Center, many Americans with incomes below $40,000 tend tocupearn more money than they pay in thanks to credits like the EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit). This group includes millions of households that would automatically be excluded from the dividend.

The approach has been criticized for its regressive nature, as it would exclude those who need support most, despite representing a return of public funds.

Inflation risks, according to experts

Although some proponents claim the inflationary impact would be smaller because taxpayers tend to save or invest their money, other economists disagree.

Aaron Razon, a personal budgeting expert, argues that injecting large sums of money into the economy can boost consumption and thus put pressure on prices. “Many would spend the money immediately, which would increase demand and, consequently, prices,” he warned.

From the business sector, Joseph Camberato, CEO of National Business Capital, added that any massive payment, no matter how single, ends up generating tensions in the market. "We already saw the effects during the pandemic," he recalled.

How viable is this proposal?

Despite public support from figures like Musk and Trump, there is no concrete legislation or set date for implementing the plan. It's more of an idea under discussion within the Republican political community, framed by promises of efficiency and the return of public resources.

In a still fragile economic context, with high inflation and a tight labor market, this proposal divides opinions. For some, it's a way to reward those who support the tax system; for others, it's a populist measure that excludes the most vulnerable sectors.